Sunday, June 17th, 2007 by Adam Wagner
Prospect Profile: Justin Upton
The number one overall pick in the 2005 draft has had a mercurial career to this point. He clearly has all of the talent in the world, but is believed to have been bored playing at South Bend last year, as he posted a .263 average with an OPS of .757. These lame numbers are not acceptable or typical for a guy who should be considered one of the top prospects in baseball. It says something to his talent, however, that he can put them up and still be thought of so highly. He is one of a stable of excellent young prospects that the Diamondbacks are putting together, along with Chris Young, Carlos Gonzalez, Miguel Montero, and Brett Anderson (along with like six other pitchers).
Strengths: Upton is extremely fast. His speed makes him an exceptional outfielder, but he also possesses a very good arm which allows him to whip the ball across the diamond exceptionally. He, therefore, also plays a very good shortstop. His physical attributes show that he should hit for both power and average, as he has very strong arms and wrists. The speed that makes him a very good fielder also translates to baserunning ability, as he stole 15 last season and has 5 this year. He is, undoubtedly one of the top prospects in the game if only for his massive physical ability. He is, if anything, more talented than his brother, Tampa Bay’s BJ.
Weaknesses: He is related to BJ who, to this point, has been a huge underachiever. Justin is showing these same attributes, as he has not been nearly as good as scouts thought he should be. It must be noted, however, that he has seemed to turn it on this season. It is not a good trait when a player turns his talent on and off depending on his interest in what is happening to him. For an “average” hitter, Upton seems to strike out a lot (96 over 438 ABs last year and 56 over 250 ABs this year).
Projection: Upton will end up being a shortstop or centerfielder in the big leagues, and will be an exceptional fielder at either of these positions. He will hit about .290 and strike out a lot, but will go on occasional extremely hot streaks. He will steal about 15-20 bases a year, but will never fully reach his supposedly massive potential due to lack of concentration or inability to deal with the hype. If he plays at short, which looks unlikely due to Stephen Drew’s presence, he will be one of the top 5 shortstops in baseball. As an outfielder, he will be a very good fielder, but an underachiever as a hitter.
Comparable to: Milton Bradley in a good year, Jimmy Rollins, Edgar Renteria (Actually the best comparison by far due to average, speed, potential power, fielder prowess, hype, big play ability, and overall talent; all of which he shares with Upton.)
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