Monday, July 9th, 2007 by Adam Wagner
It’s Derby Time . . .
Tonight, the most important of the All-Star festivities will take place. No, I’m not talking about the celebrity softball game (why don’t they just call it beer league?) or even the Futures Game. Actually, it is all about the Home Run Derby. No other event is more important or better publicized than it, not even the All Star Game itself.
Perhaps the best proof of this is the impact that both events will have on the remainder of the season. While the All Star Game itself “counts,” it is actually pretty meaningless and will inevitably be won by the American League. The Home Run Derby’s effects on the rest of the season are significantly larger, as Jim Edmonds and Bobby Abreu can attest. Edmonds, who participated in the Derby in 2003, re-injured his shoulder and limped (or flopped) for the remainder of the season. Abreu’s record-setting derby performance two years ago was immediately followed by a complete power outage for a hitter who had been, to that point in his career, one of the most consistent hitters in baseball.
The Derby plays mindgames with hitters and messes them up for at least a short time afterward, as they not only swing harder (and therefore creating more wear and tear), but they also change their mentality for the contest and have a difficult time reverting to the normal hitter’s mentality after it ends.
With all of that said, it’s time to handicap this year’s Derby:
Alexis Rios – This former superstud prospect with an extremely feminine name has turned into one of the best overall hitters in baseball. Last season, Rios was on his way to putting up exceptional numbers until a staph infection threw him out of whack. He ended up with 17 homeruns, a .349 OBP, and a .516 slugging percentage. These numbers have all held pretty true this year, but he has already matched last year’s homerun output. With that said, Rios has very little chance of winning the competition unless he pulls an Abreu, coming out of nowhere and just line driving the competition into submission. With much larger mashers littered throughout the contest, he will be a first-round exit, but it is nice to see him getting the recognition.
Magglio Ordonez – Like Rios, it is nice to see him getting the recognition, and he really has no chance in this competition. Instead of rewarding mashers this year, MLB seems to be rewarding the good hitters as well. This seems like a good strategy to some extent, but the derby should be about mashers, not hitters. Ordonez has thirteen homeruns this year, but is leading the league in batting average at .367. Additionally, his OPS is over 1, a clear sign of a monster year. The only odd thing is that there are 24 hitters with more homeruns than Ordonez. This is not the gap-ball derby, it is the homerun derby.
Vladimir Guerrero – Guerrero is my all-time favorite baseball player, so I love seeing him get the nod here. His hitting ability is unparalleled and Jason Bay’s hot streaks are nothing compared to Vladdy’s. Guerrero is not a masher, just a very good, very pure hitter. He has more RBIs than Ordonez, with 75, which is good for second in the American League. Guerrero definitely does deserve to be here, if not only because his swing is so fun to watch, but it still seems as if the derby is more about hitting ability than homeruns this year.
Justin Morneau – At last, a borderline legitimate slugger-type hitter (not that Vlad, Mags, and Alexis won’t get their fair share of homeruns; they’re just hitters, not sluggers). Morneau is the only AL contestant with more than 20 homers, with 24. His power ability is legit and he is one of the best hitters in baseball today, as evidenced by his ability to carry the Twins at times. Morneau or Guerrero will be the guy to make it out of the AL, with former being much more likely.
Matt Holliday – The newest addition, replacing Miguel Cabrera (who may actually be injured but more likely just doesn’t want to make the swing adjustments necessary between baseball and derby and back again), is another hitter, not slugger. The Rockie has 15 homeruns and has been a legitimate threat in the middle of a blossoming young order, but his most important quality is his ability to get hits, as his .341 batting average illustrates. It seems almost like MLB went running around looking for somebody and just happened to find Holliday. This derby’s lineup is weird enough that he could be considered a dark horse.
Albert Pujols – Unlike the other contestants, who hope not to change anything, this slugger seems to be trying to use the homerun derby to regain his power stroke. Pujols’ power seems to have deserted him recently, and what better way to recover it than spending a glorified round of batting practice trying to drop bombs into McCovey Cove? If it works for him, look for a trend to start next year with struggling sluggers doing the derby in an attempt to replicate his success.
Prince Fielder – The main threat to defending champion Ryan Howard’s crown, Prince has lived up to his name (unlike “King Felix” Hernandez in Seattle) and has a legitimate chance to unseat the Phillie in San Francisco, thereby ending Philadelphia’s reign on the competition. Fielder has flashed prodigious power so far this year and will undoubtedly hit more than a few balls into McCovey Cove tonight, but that does not mean that he will be able to defeat the king:
Ryan Howard – Howard’s sweet swing probably means that he will retain the championship, with the main contenders being Fielder from the National League and Morneau from the American League. If he can go back to back, Howard will simply be adding to his growing legend as an amazing power hitter. To me, he is the clear favorite.
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