Sunday, November 11th, 2007 by Adam Wagner
Why the Yankees Do Not Make Sense
According to New York Yankees’ General Manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees are unwilling to trade one of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, or Ian Kennedy for a position player. Never mind that this position player is Miguel Cabrera, the most valuable player under 25 in the game. Cabrera, who commonly draws comparisons to Ted Williams, is undoubtedly one of the best hitters of the last five years. He has also proven that he can play on the biggest stage in the game, excelling in Yankee Stadium in the 2003 World Series as a rookie. In his article on SI.com, John Heyman states that the Yankees will be unwilling to trade one of the three young pitchers in a package for Twins’ stud Johan Santana.
This thinking completely defies accepted logic, as a position player is definitely more valuable than a starting pitcher. If the Yankees had to give up Chamberlain, for instance, for Cabrera they would be trading a stud young pitcher for one of the best hitters in baseball. The hitter could continue with his weight struggle but still be a fantastic hitter. Chamberlain, meanwhile, has much more that could go wrong with him. For instance, he could suffer Steve Blass syndrome and start missing the strike zone. Or he could start leaving pitches over the middle of the plate. Or, more likely than anything else, he could have an injury to his elbow or shoulder in his pitching arm.
Add the fact that the pitcher will only play one of five days while the position player will play at least 140 out of 162 days and the elite position player’s value rises even higher. Look at Santana’s Twins this year. The team finished with a 79-83 record despite Santana’s typical Cy Youngish season (even though there are three other pitchers who had just as good of seasons in Scott Kazmir, Eric Bedard, and Dan Haren). The reason for this was the holes in the rest of the Twins’ rotation and in their offense, something that Santana could not fix due to his playing in a fifth of the team’s games. The Yankees don’t look like they are going to be in a much better situation than the Twins next season despite the presence of many more high-priced players. Both teams will have very young rotations. Both teams will have a few offensive superstars. And both teams will probably hover around .500.
In order for the Yankees to be truly great again, they need to find someone to replace Alex Rodriguez’s bat. The solution to this is not to trade for the best pitcher in baseball, but to trade for one of the best hitters in baseball. Cabrera has shown an ability to fill the middle of the order, working with Hanley Ramirez to carry the Marlins to a 71-91 record last season, which is actually kind of impressive considering that, outside of those two and maybe Dan Uggla, Florida’s lineup consisted of six black holes and its pitching staff should have been renamed bomb fodder.
Also, Cabrera still has room to grow. He is only 24, nowhere near the “Age 27 season” yet, meaning that if he follows typical statistical development he will improve for three more seasons. He is already one of the best offensive players in the game and, if he continues to improve, could become simply dominant.
In one final note, if you compare the two players last season, Cabrera’s Value Over Replacement Player (or VORP) was 71.4, making him the 10th most valuable position player in baseball (and being surpassed only by Jake Peavy, with a 77, amongst pitchers). Santana’s VORP was 57.7, making him the 10th most valuable starting pitcher. The Yankees’ choice should be easy, but if Heyman is right they will go against conventional wisdom and, as such, make the completely wrong decision.
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