Be Like Tike

Tuesday, January 8th, 2008 by Adam Wagner

Huntington wants to sign Capps, not Sanchez, to an extension

Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington wants to sign closer Matt Capps to a contract extension, but not star 2B Freddy Sanchez according to the PG. Like many of Huntington’s moves so far, I disagree with this one on the grounds of logic. Unlike many of management’s recent decisions, however, this one seems to make more sense upon further reflection.

Sanchez is undoubtedly the more valuable player, especially on a team like the Pirates. Too often do the Pirates put runners on second and third with one or no outs and fail to bring one or both players around. Sanchez is a clutch hitter who ensures that these runners are not stranded and, two years removed from a magical run to the NL batting title that is the Pirates’ story of the decade to this point, is a consistent .300 hitter. Sanchez is also a doubles machine, hitting 53 in 2006 and 42 in 2007, demonstrating an ability to take advantage of the expansive outfield at PNC. Furthermore, Sanchez gladly made the transition from third base to second base last season, turning into an excellent fielder at a position that he had not played in quite some time.

Freddy Sanchez should definitely be the face of the Pirates this coming season and in the future due to his dedication to and ability to maintain success.

On the downside, Sanchez would probably be pretty expensive, as he is undoubtedly one of the top five players at his position in the National League and a threat every time he steps up to the plate. It would probably take something in the range of four years and $30 million to resign Sanchez, based on the two year, $14.3 million contract that Orioles’ 2B Brian Roberts received this past offseason. That contract would be fair, but would probably last a little bit longer than the Pirates would like it to.

Honestly, that does not matter. Sanchez is an everyday player, an excellent community guy, and the most consistent producer on the team. That should be rewarded. That is not to say, however, that Matt Capps should not also receive an extension.

Capps, with his 3.08 career ERA and 18 saves last season, is definitely one of the up and coming closers in baseball, but there are four major issues with giving the flamethrower the extension that the Buccos are discussing with him.

First of all, since when have the Pirates actually needed a solid closer? With Huntington’s recent announcement of the starting five, it appears as if the Pirates might need a closer two times once every five days. And that is assuming that Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell are not in one of their extended funks. Outside of that, getting the ball to Capps will be extremely tricky and could mess with his value.
Second, a position player is always more valuable than a pitcher of comparable skill. This makes logical sense simply because the position player will play every day and, therefore, affect the outcome of the game 145 to 150 days a year if he can stay healthy, while a pitcher, even a reliever, will only affect the outcome in a little more than half of the games (Capps had 85 appearances last season).
Capps has had a ton of mileage put on his arm for a 24-year old, putting up 161 appearances (and 159.2 innings) in the last two seasons. The Pirates should be a little bit concerned about overuse, especially concerning Capps’ repertoire. If they expect him to be a successful closer for the next four or five years (the presumed length of the extension) they should be more careful about when they insert him into games.
Capps is not a strikeout pitcher, instead pitching to contact. Traditionally, the most successful closers (see: Jonathan Papelbon, JJ Putz, and Francisco Rodriguez) are strikeout pitchers. This simply plays to the situation, as a hitter has a much greater chance of success if he puts the ball in play than if he is left looking silly in the batter’s box. Capps, however, averages .75 strikeouts per inning, which is nothing compared to the dominant closers throughout the game. Papelbon, for instance, posted a ridiculous 1.45 strikeouts per inning, while his Yankee counterpart Mariano Rivera posted a “pedestrian” 1.04 k’s per inning. A closer very simply has to be a strikeout guy if he hopes to remain successful over an extended period of time. Capps, however, allows a ton of hits for a closer (.81 per inning last year . . . Putz allowed .52), thereby putting himself and his team in unnecessarily dangerous situations.

Signing Capps would give the Pirates excellent trade bait if he continues to be successful, but almost all relievers are successful at some point in their careers, but tend to be more erratic than other players (look at the fangraph for Franciso Cordero, who is solidly below league average probably due to his role as closer, but has a roller coaster ERA). I can not help but feel a little bit unsettled at the evidence I have presented above. It does not appear as if Capps is a dominating closer just yet, while we know that Sanchez is an excellent baseball player, but the Pirates are negotiating with the question mark instead of the (more) sure thing.