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Baseball Prospectus came out with its top 11 prospects for the Pirates on Thursday and the list is not very encouraging.  As has been noted in the past, the Pirates have three potential legitimate major league prospects in their minor league system at this point and then just a pile of mediocre players.  The list, of course, started with Andrew McCutchen, who BP granted a 5-star grade, but who the list somehow raised more questions about than answers.

McCutchen has all of the tools in the world and projects as a legitimate major leaguer, but there are still plenty of questions, most of which were brought on by his abysmal display at Altoona last year.  McCutchen flatout stunk for much of the season, making adjustments at the end and performing at a decent level at AAA Indianapolis.  While still a legitimate stud prospect, McCutchen does not appear as if he is the superstar that the Pirates thought he would be at one point.

BP has Steve Pearce rated second in the Pirates’ organization with four stars, a very strong ranking for any player and not a surprise for Pearce, who appears as if he is the one Pirate minor leaguer who could have an effect at the major league level in 2008.  With a degree of power virtually non-existent throughout the organization as well as the ability to hit for average, Pearce would probably be best served by starting the season at AAA and, hopefully, doing well there before a trade of Xavier Nady gave him a chance to be the dominant platoon member in RF with Ryan Doumit and the backup 1B to Adam LaRoche.

Neil Walker, who BP labels a “switch-hitting Todd Zeile” in a perfect world, is rated third on the list.  This is probably right, as Walker appears as if he will be an average major leaguer with trouble in the field and a little bit of power at this point.  Walker has always seemed overrated to me, but apparently he has all of the tools to become a major leaguer despite not hitting a home run over the final fourth of the 2007 season.

The most overdrafted player of last year’s amateur draft, RP Daniel Moskos, is rated fourth.  Moskos is a three-star player according to BP, who reveals that despite Moskos’ being drafted as a reliever the Huntington administration may be considering moving him back into a starting role.  Moskos still has potential, but there were at least three players on the board who appeared to be better value at the time (Ross Detwiler, Jared Parker, and Jason Heyward) and who still appear to be significantly better value.  If Moskos can become a decent starter, he would become the Pirates’ (meaning the poor man’s) version of Joba Chamberlain, meaning a starter who could be an effective reliever if necessary.

Ranked fifth is RHP Brad Lincoln, who was the first round pick of the 2006 draft before needing Tommy John surgery.  Lincoln is a smallish pitcher who is also a very good hitter. More importantly to the Pirates, however, is the fact that when he is healthy, Lincoln can hit up to 95 mph.  According to BP, he projects as a mid-rotation starter, but I still think that Lincoln could end up as one of Dave Littlefield’s better picks.  Remember, the questions about Tim Lincecum also revolved (and still do revolve) around his size and look how that turned out.  If Lincoln can recover from his surgery effectively, I think that he will hit Pittsburgh in two and a half to three seasons and be a solid pitcher.

And here is where the dropoff occurs, as the players go from being legitimate prospects to being interesting question marks with OF Jamie Romak, the “other” player acquired in the Adam LaRoche trade.  Romak has power and he has patience, but he generally does not hit for average.  The outfielder took a huge step forward last year, putting up OBPs of .393 and .380 and slugging percentages of .551 and .483 at low A ball and high A ball, respectively.  Romak’s status as a prospect (BP rates him at three stars) or not will be cemented by how he performs at Altoona this year.

6′7 pitcher Duke Welker, who was selected in the second round of last year’s draft, is next on the list.  Welker’s name was one of those that kept popping up next to interesting lines in the PG’s minor league report towards the end of last season and will probably pitch at Lynchburg or Hickory this season.  Welker has potential, but he still has a long way to go before reaching the majors.

Next on the list is Brian Bixler, who BP gives a two-star ranking.  This is particularly scary considering that Bixler is the player who keeps being mentioned as Jack Wilson’s replacement despite his lack of power and relative weakness in the field.  Bixler does nothing particularly well, but instead does everything at a level that is a little bit above average and simply continues to move up the rungs.  A scrappy player, Bixler will play at Indianapolis this year until one of the middle infielders injures himself or Wilson is traded (which may or may not occur) at which point he will be called up and asked to take on a role with the major league club.

Brian Friday is another scrappy middle infielder, even though BP goes as far as to say that he has “a little bit of David Eckstein in him.”  Friday actually seems more like Jack Wilson than Bixler with his plus fielding abilities, contact-hitting style, and lack of power.  I would expect Friday to be the player who ends up reminding Pittsburgh fans of Wilson in five or six years, not Bixler.

Shelby Ford, another middle infielder who was drafted in the upper rounds (3rd in 2006) of the draft is next on the list.  An offensive player, Ford will have difficulties advancing through the system due to his aggressive approach at the plate.  Ford is 23 and has not yet reached AA, meaning that he has been older than the competition at most of his stops to this point, a huge mark against a player.  I would not expect Ford to become anything beyond just another organizational soldier.

The final player on the list is catcher Andrew Walker who was chosen in the fifth round of the 2007 draft.  Walker is profiled as a line drive hitter who is excellent at calling games, but who will probably not develop much more in the way of power.  With his .317 average at State College last season, Walker has seen success and could conceivably see some more as he works his way through the system.  This is probably a player worth keeping an eye on.

After reviewing these prospects, the picture isn’t quite as dreary as it could be.  The Pirates basically have five decent prospects and four intriguing players with question marks (Ford and Bixler are not going to be anything special), more than it seems like they do.  The issue, however, is that the Pirates only have one player under 25 years old who is contributing to the major league team, closer Matt Capps.  That as well as the lack of depth at the minor league level (nine interesting prospects out of 125 is not a good number) show why a massive shift in thinking directed by Neal Huntington is absolutely necessary, starting with the drafting of players and moving into the advancement of them through the system.

As with seeming everything else Pirate-related this offseason, the minor league system does not seem to portend success in the near future, but has just enough upside to be relatively interesting and could be made very interesting if Huntington and Frank Coonelly do their jobs properly over the next three years.

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